Maybe we don't need as many farmers

Staff photo Farmers inspect equipment at a Quad-Cities farm show. Ever more sophisticated tools make fewer farmers necesary.

The future of farming and agriculture is technology, ``top to bottom,'' according Sally Thompson, a marketing professor at the University of Illinois.

The outward appearance of the bicentennial farm may not be a lot different than it is today, Ms. Thompson said.

It's unlikely that farm fields will be replaced by long buildings where plants hang from lines with their roots being sprayed with nutrients. It's just as unlikely farms will be turned into giant hydroponic greenhouses, although the future looks bright for those types of businesses.

There is no crystal ball to foresee exactly what will take place over the next 100 years. Farm groups worry about the declining number of farmers and increasing number of mergers that allow a few to control so much agriculture.

Also, more farmers are under contract with companies, especially in livestock production. Urban sprawl is gobbling up prime farm land needed to grow our food.

Yet, some believe farmers have fallen victim to their own success. Experts, like Aaron Putze, public relations director of the Iowa Farm Bureau, reported increases in production aren't as necessary as once thought.

World population growth is slowing, Mr. Putze said. By 2015, population growth is expected to fall below 1 percent. In contrast, food output per acre is increasing 1.5 percent. The consensus is that yields will continue to increase and no additional land is needed to maintain the current consumption level worldwide.

``Farmers have become very productive and as a result you don't need as many farmers,'' University of Illinois economist Paul Elgatian said. ``But that doesn't mean agriculture is not important. The same can be said for manufacturing...we've become more efficient.''

In 1940, the average farmer produced enough food to feed 18.5 people. In 1995, one farmer produced enough food to feed 129 people. It isn't unrealistic to expect 1999's average yield of 135 bushels of corn per acre to exceed 400 by the year 2100.

While there will be changes, it's likely machines will continue to be used for planting and harvesting just as they are today, Ms. Thompson.

What will change is how they are guided through the fields. Computers will be used in every aspect of farming, from keeping farm records and ordering supplies to tracking yields.

Information on soil types, fertility, rain and yield histories will fed into a computer program that will produce a layered map of every foot of every field.

``The tools are there, all we need to do is learn to use them,'' Ms. Thompson said.

Farmers are grid mapping fields and using global positioning systems to pinpoint problems that allow them to prescribe treatments to specific areas instead of the entire field.

Planters and application equipment guided by information fed into on-board computers can fertilize and treat areas without the farmer having to stop and make adjustments.

The technology will make every farmer better, enabling the smaller farmer to remain profitable.

``I'm optimistic,'' Ms. Thompson said. ``Every type of farmer will be better off. Small farmers, organic farmers and the farmer who raises something for niche markets will benefit from technology.''

Farmers already have started custom tailoring their relationships with suppliers and buyers, Ms. Thompson said. They will become more market-oriented, planting specifically for the market and potential buyers, which will allow even the smaller farmer to stay afloat.

Just as people use the Internet to shop for everything from handbags to airline tickets, Ms. Thompson sees farmers and agricultural traders using it to shop for the best price on seeds and chemicals or finding the highest bidder for their corn, soybeans and livestock.

``We won't have the generic bulk system that we now have,'' Ms. Thompson said. ``It will be more efficient and make prices much more competitive.''